Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Dolphins NIA @ LEM

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

2-1  |  Road

68
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Ted Grant Court
View Odds Details →

LE MOYNE

DOLPHINSLEM

1-3  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
PURPLE EAGLES --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
LE MOYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Le Moyne)
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 DolphinsLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

6.7%

Dolphins Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LEM -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LEM)

NIA By 1-7 points

4.8%

NIA By 8-14 points

1.1%

LEM By 1-7 points

15.3%

LEM By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
67
NIAGARA
82
LE MOYNE
Simulated Score
68
NIAGARA
72
LE MOYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dolphins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2025 NIA @ LEM 68 - 74
Dec 29, 2024 LEM @ NIA 69 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.4% more
Le Moyne: 7.4 vs Niagara: 5.2
Turnovers (L5) +40.5% more
Le Moyne: 15.1 vs Niagara: 10.8
Blocks (L5) +13.5% more
Le Moyne: 3.7 vs Niagara: 3.3
Assists (L5) +12.1% more
Le Moyne: 15.8 vs Niagara: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 67.0 68
LEM Score 82.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 38.6 42.0 / 46.0
Assists 15.8 / 14.1 15.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.3 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 47.0 43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 69.9 91.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 31.1 35.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.2 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 10.8 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
LEM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
LEM Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
LEM
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LEM
NIA
LEM
NIA
ML
68% 21-10
55% 16-13
68% 21-10
72% 21-8
ATS
65% 20-11
69% 20-9
69% 22-10
72% 21-8
TTL
42% 13-18
55% 16-13
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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