EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
9-7-4 | Road
1
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
6-8-4 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Walman
#96 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Walman | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 1.00 | 0.970 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.00
--
Save %
0.970
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
100%
SABRES
0%
OILERS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
EDM By 1 goal
12.1%
EDM By 2-3 goals
9.3%
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Edmonton
2
EDMONTON
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
BUF @ EDM
4 - 3
Nov 17, 2025
EDM @ BUF
1 - 5
Mar 10, 2025
EDM @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 25, 2025
BUF @ EDM
2 - 3
Mar 21, 2024
BUF @ EDM
3 - 8
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+58.8% more
Buffalo: 6.4
vs
Edmonton: 4.0
Power Play % (L5)
+35.1%
Edmonton: 41.5%
vs
Buffalo: 6.4%
Faceoff % (L5)
+13.2%
Edmonton: 53.8%
vs
Buffalo: 40.6%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.7% more
Edmonton: 26.3
vs
Buffalo: 24.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
3.0
1
BUF Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.4 / 13.9
19.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
40.6 / 53.8
43.9 / 56.1
Hits
18.6 / 18.6
13.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
6.4 / 41.5
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
24.0 / 26.3
28.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
6.4 / 4.0
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
EDM
BUF
EDM
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
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