HARVARD
CRIMSONHARV
2-1 | Road
56
MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
2-1 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON
100%
RED FOXES
0%
CRIMSON
--
RED FOXES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Marist)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRST -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)
HARV By 1-7 points
4.8%
HARV By 8-14 points
1.1%
MRST By 1-7 points
15.3%
MRST By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Harvard
62
HARVARD
Marist
77
MARIST
Simulated Score
Harvard
65
HARVARD
Marist
71
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Foxes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Red Foxes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o130.5
Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u130.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 16, 2025
HARV @ MRST
56 - 54
Nov 4, 2024
MRST @ HARV
66 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+31.9% more
Marist: 18.0
vs
Harvard: 13.7
Rebounding (L5)
+16.8% more
Marist: 38.5
vs
Harvard: 33.0
Steals (L5)
+15.7% more
Harvard: 9.0
vs
Marist: 7.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Harvard: 36.9%
vs
Marist: 33.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HARV Score
62.0
56
MRST Score
77.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 36.9
32.0 / 38.0
Assists
18.0 / 13.7
12.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.5
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 47.2
38.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
82.4 / 81.1
67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 33.0
33.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.6 / 9.0
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 12.1
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HARV
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +2.6
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HARV
12-13-1
(48.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +2.6
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HARV
9-17-0
O: 34.6% / U: 65.4%
Total +/-: -4.3
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
HARV
MRST
HARV
ML
55%
17-14
45%
13-16
61%
19-12
52%
15-14
ATS
74%
23-8
45%
13-16
61%
19-12
52%
15-14
TTL
52%
16-15
41%
12-17
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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