SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
3-10 | Road
110
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
8-4 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
SPURS
100%
KINGS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SAC By 1-7 points
25.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
26.2%
SA By 1-7 points
13.7%
SA By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
108
SACRAMENTO
San Antonio
100
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Sacramento
110
SACRAMENTO
San Antonio
120
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u240.5
Win
Proj Total: 208.0
D
Sim
u240.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
SA @ SAC
132 - 104
Feb 21, 2026
SAC @ SA
122 - 139
Nov 16, 2025
SAC @ SA
110 - 123
Mar 7, 2025
SA @ SAC
109 - 127
Dec 6, 2024
SAC @ SA
140 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+72.7% more
San Antonio: 4.9
vs
Sacramento: 2.8
Turnovers (L5)
+16.0% more
San Antonio: 17.8
vs
Sacramento: 15.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.8%
San Antonio: 81.9%
vs
Sacramento: 68.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+13.1% more
San Antonio: 44.1
vs
Sacramento: 39.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
108.0
110
SA Score
100.0
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 36.6
37.0 / 36.0
Assists
27.5 / 27.2
38.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 44.1
54.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
81.9 / 68.1
83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
44.1 / 39.0
46.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.1
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.8 / 15.3
15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
SAC
SA
SAC
ML
60%
111-73
55%
55-45
58%
61-44
61%
50-32
ATS
58%
107-76-1
54%
52-45-3
58%
61-44
61%
50-32
TTL
74%
134-47-3
58%
57-42-1
100%
105-0
100%
82-0
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