ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
2-2 | Road
82
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
0-4 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
0%
BEACH
100%
REDBIRDS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Illinois State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILST -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
ILST By 1-7 points
9.3%
ILST By 8-14 points
20.1%
LBSU By 1-7 points
2.2%
LBSU By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois State
77
ILLINOIS STATE
Long Beach State
58
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
Illinois State
69
ILLINOIS STATE
Long Beach State
72
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 16, 2025
ILST @ LBSU
82 - 80
Nov 20, 2023
ILST @ LBSU
61 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+16.1% more
Illinois State: 12.0
vs
Long Beach State: 10.1
Rebounding (L5)
+13.7% more
Illinois State: 38.1
vs
Long Beach State: 32.9
Blocks (L5)
+8.5% more
Illinois State: 2.8
vs
Long Beach State: 2.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Illinois State: 72.3%
vs
Long Beach State: 65.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILST Score
77.0
82
LBSU Score
58.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.9 / 31.3
42.0 / 31.0
Assists
10.1 / 12.0
12.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.6 / 2.8
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
38.9 / 43.0
48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
65.7 / 72.3
56.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 38.1
36.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.2 / 4.0
2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 11.5
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
LBSU
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
ILST
LBSU
ILST
ML
55%
17-14
42%
15-21
65%
20-11
71%
24-10
ATS
68%
21-10
58%
21-15
65%
20-11
71%
24-10
TTL
61%
19-12
58%
21-15
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
