WESTERN MICHIGAN
BRONCOSWMU
2-2 | Road
78
SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
2-2 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
COYOTES
100%
BRONCOS
--
COYOTES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Western Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)
WMU By 1-7 points
27.2%
WMU By 8-14 points
23.0%
SDAK By 1-7 points
18.6%
SDAK By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Michigan
78
WESTERN MICHIGAN
South Dakota
73
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
Western Michigan
70
WESTERN MICHIGAN
South Dakota
75
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Broncos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Coyotes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Broncos (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Coyotes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u173.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u173.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 16, 2025
WMU @ SDAK
78 - 83
Nov 20, 2024
SDAK @ WMU
80 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.6% more
Western Michigan: 15.1
vs
South Dakota: 13.0
Steals (L5)
+37.7% more
South Dakota: 8.2
vs
Western Michigan: 5.9
Blocks (L5)
+13.5% more
South Dakota: 3.4
vs
Western Michigan: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
South Dakota: 75.8%
vs
Western Michigan: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WMU Score
78.0
78
SDAK Score
73.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 30.9
35.0 / 31.0
Assists
12.3 / 13.3
15.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.0
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 44.3
42.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
75.8 / 72.4
64.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
42.3 / 42.6
27.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.2 / 5.9
7.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 15.1
3.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
SDAK
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
SDAK
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +1.3
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
WMU
SDAK
WMU
ML
70%
21-9
60%
18-12
63%
19-11
70%
21-9
ATS
70%
21-9
67%
20-10
63%
19-11
70%
21-9
TTL
67%
20-10
57%
17-13
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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