Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Hilltoppers TNST @ WKU

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

2-1  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 3:00 PM ET
E.A. Diddle Arena
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

2-0  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
HILLTOPPERS
100%
TIGERS --
HILLTOPPERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Tennessee State)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 HilltoppersWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

90.3%

Hilltoppers Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

TNST By 1-7 points

18.6%

TNST By 8-14 points

26.8%

WKU By 1-7 points

6.8%

WKU By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
84
TENNESSEE STATE
71
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
65
TENNESSEE STATE
78
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hilltoppers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Hilltoppers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 TNST @ WKU 82 - 95
Dec 10, 2024 TNST @ WKU 60 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.0% more
Tennessee State: 4.4 vs Western Kentucky: 2.0
Turnovers (L5) +46.5% more
Tennessee State: 14.0 vs Western Kentucky: 7.5
Assists (L5) +33.3% more
Tennessee State: 16.6 vs Western Kentucky: 11.0
Rebounding (L5) +16.1% more
Tennessee State: 46.3 vs Western Kentucky: 38.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 84.0 82
WKU Score 71.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 21.3 / 33.3 13.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.0 / 16.6 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.0 / 4.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 48.2 55.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 78.8 72.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 46.3 39.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.5 / 10.0 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.5 / 14.0 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
WKU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
WKU
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
TNST
WKU
TNST
ML
56% 18-14
52% 16-15
66% 21-11
63% 17-10
ATS
53% 17-15
68% 21-10
66% 21-11
64% 18-10
TTL
56% 18-14
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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