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MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

0-3  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Case Gym
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BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

2-1  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
TERRIERS
0%
WARRIORS --
TERRIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston University)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 TerriersBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Terriers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BU)

MRMK By 1-7 points

24.3%

MRMK By 8-14 points

13.7%

BU By 1-7 points

26.2%

BU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MERRIMACK
63
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
67
MERRIMACK
71
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Terriers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Terriers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Terriers (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Terriers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 MRMK @ BU 91 - 79
Dec 13, 2024 BU @ MRMK 61 - 64
Dec 30, 2023 MRMK @ BU 63 - 74
Dec 2, 2022 BU @ MRMK 68 - 54
Nov 28, 2021 MRMK @ BU 60 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +73.7% more
Boston University: 15.5 vs Merrimack: 8.9
Rebounding (L5) +15.2% more
Boston University: 33.9 vs Merrimack: 29.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.9%
Boston University: 40.4% vs Merrimack: 25.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +12.8%
Boston University: 47.2% vs Merrimack: 34.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 62.0 91
BU Score 63.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.4 / 25.5 41.0 / 63.0
Assists 15.5 / 8.9 18.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.3 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 34.4 52.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 75.9 63.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 29.4 25.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.7 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 13.2 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
BU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
BU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BU
MRMK
BU
MRMK
ML
68% 23-11
47% 16-18
62% 21-13
65% 22-12
ATS
62% 21-13
53% 18-16
62% 21-13
65% 22-12
TTL
65% 22-12
62% 21-13
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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