Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Explorers PSU @ LAS

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

3-0  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

LA SALLE

EXPLORERSLAS

2-1  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
EXPLORERS
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
EXPLORERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
LA SALLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (La Salle)
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 ExplorersLAS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

2.3%

Explorers Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAS -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAS)

PSU By 1-7 points

1.7%

PSU By 8-14 points

0.3%

LAS By 1-7 points

8.0%

LAS By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
59
PENN STATE
79
LA SALLE
Simulated Score
66
PENN STATE
78
LA SALLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Explorers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Explorers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Explorers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Explorers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 PSU @ LAS 83 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.9% more
La Salle: 3.7 vs Penn State: 2.2
Turnovers (L5) +19.1% more
La Salle: 11.2 vs Penn State: 9.4
Rebounding (L5) +8.1% more
La Salle: 36.5 vs Penn State: 33.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
La Salle: 39.3% vs Penn State: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 59.0 83
LAS Score 79.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 36.9 44.0 / 50.0
Assists 12.6 / 14.6 16.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.2 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.1 / 49.8 50.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 74.0 80.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 33.8 28.0 / 25.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.8 1.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 9.4 15.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
LAS
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
LAS Advantage
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
LAS
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAS
PSU
LAS
PSU
ML
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
56% 18-14
ATS
78% 25-7
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
56% 18-14
TTL
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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