UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
1-2 | Road
84
DENVER
PIONEERSDEN
1-2 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
PIONEERS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
PIONEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-46.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +46.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -46.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
UTSA By 1-7 points
0.0%
UTSA By 8-14 points
0.0%
DEN By 1-7 points
0.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
44
UTSA
Denver
90
DENVER
Simulated Score
UTSA
68
UTSA
Denver
72
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pioneers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pioneers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pioneers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -46.0
D
Sim
Pioneers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
UTSA @ DEN
84 - 79
Nov 16, 2021
DEN @ UTSA
64 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.7% more
Denver: 14.2
vs
UTSA: 9.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Denver: 48.2%
vs
UTSA: 39.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Denver: 39.4%
vs
UTSA: 30.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Denver: 70.3%
vs
UTSA: 66.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
44.0
84
DEN Score
90.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 30.8
41.0 / 48.0
Assists
10.2 / 11.5
14.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.9 / 5.1
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 39.5
45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 66.7
86.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 38.7
27.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.5 / 8.4
4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 9.9
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
DEN
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
DEN
Advantage
17-11-1
(60.7%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6%
Total +/-: +7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
UTSA
DEN
UTSA
ML
56%
18-14
83%
24-5
59%
19-13
48%
14-15
ATS
66%
21-11
72%
21-8
59%
19-13
50%
15-15
TTL
59%
19-13
66%
19-10
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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