MERCER
BEARSMER
2-1 | Road
69
WINTHROP
EAGLESWIN
1-2 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
EAGLES
100%
BEARS
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Mercer)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MER -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)
MER By 1-7 points
0.1%
MER By 8-14 points
0.8%
WIN By 1-7 points
0.0%
WIN By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
102
MERCER
Winthrop
64
WINTHROP
Simulated Score
Mercer
73
MERCER
Winthrop
77
WINTHROP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o163.5
Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
MER @ WIN
69 - 105
Dec 21, 2024
MER @ WIN
97 - 102
Nov 19, 2022
WIN @ MER
68 - 77
Nov 13, 2021
MER @ WIN
85 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.6% more
Mercer: 4.6
vs
Winthrop: 2.7
Steals (L5)
+32.0% more
Mercer: 10.2
vs
Winthrop: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+28.8% more
Mercer: 15.7
vs
Winthrop: 11.2
Rebounding (L5)
+15.1% more
Mercer: 39.1
vs
Winthrop: 33.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
102.0
69
WIN Score
64.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 33.8
44.0 / 21.0
Assists
11.2 / 15.7
13.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.6
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 44.7
52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
67.9 / 70.3
70.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 39.1
43.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.0 / 10.2
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 9.3
11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
WIN
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
WIN
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIN
MER
WIN
MER
ML
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
79%
26-7
71%
22-9
ATS
79%
26-7
58%
18-13
79%
26-7
71%
22-9
TTL
58%
19-14
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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