Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buccaneers @ Lions ETSU @ UNA

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

2-1  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:00 PM ET
Flowers Hall
View Odds Details →

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

2-1  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (North Alabama)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 LionsUNA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

0.2%

Lions Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNA -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)

ETSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNA By 1-7 points

1.4%

UNA By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
57
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
86
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
70
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
75
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 ETSU @ UNA 78 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.3% more
North Alabama: 4.3 vs East Tennessee State: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +19.8% more
North Alabama: 38.5 vs East Tennessee State: 32.1
Steals (L5) +21.4% more
East Tennessee State: 9.9 vs North Alabama: 7.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.7% more
East Tennessee State: 12.6 vs North Alabama: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 57.0 78
UNA Score 86.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 37.4 41.0 / 36.0
Assists 11.7 / 11.7 11.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 48.3 44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 67.1 / 68.7 81.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 32.1 39.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.8 / 9.9 4.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 12.6 14.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
UNA
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
ETSU
UNA
ETSU
ML
43% 13-17
42% 14-19
57% 16-12
70% 23-10
ATS
60% 18-12
58% 19-14
57% 16-12
70% 23-10
TTL
63% 19-11
45% 15-18
100% 28-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 9 hours ago
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game
si 5 days, 2 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 3 hours ago
Lions Edge Jets 31-24: Gibbs' Hat Trick, TeSlaa's Breakout, and …
si 1 week, 4 days ago
Lions' Draft Radar: Five College Standouts to Watch in Week 4
si 1 week, 5 days ago