YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
2-1 | Road
80
ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
3-0 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
BONNIES
100%
PENGUINS
--
BONNIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Youngstown State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YSU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)
YSU By 1-7 points
0.6%
YSU By 8-14 points
3.3%
SBU By 1-7 points
0.1%
SBU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Youngstown State
83
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
St. Bonaventure
51
ST. BONAVENTURE
Simulated Score
Youngstown State
68
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
St. Bonaventure
75
ST. BONAVENTURE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bonnies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Bonnies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
YSU @ SBU
80 - 84
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Youngstown State: 36.6%
vs
St. Bonaventure: 33.7%
Steals (L5)
+43.7% more
St. Bonaventure: 8.1
vs
Youngstown State: 5.7
Rebounding (L5)
+16.5% more
St. Bonaventure: 35.7
vs
Youngstown State: 30.6
Blocks (L5)
+11.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 5.5
vs
Youngstown State: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YSU Score
83.0
80
SBU Score
51.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 36.6
46.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.4 / 13.7
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.0
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 43.2
58.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
70.8 / 70.8
70.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 30.6
32.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.1 / 5.7
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.5
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
SBU
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
SBU
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SBU
YSU
SBU
YSU
ML
59%
20-14
57%
17-13
61%
20-13
67%
20-10
ATS
50%
17-17
47%
14-16
61%
20-13
67%
20-10
TTL
38%
13-21
60%
18-12
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
McLeod Promoted to Head Women’s Basketball Coach
Mar 4, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels…
Mike McCarthy came home to Pittsburgh, his family and the grief …
Steelers A to Z: Undrafted rookie DT Kevin Jobity Jr. bolstered …
Rowan legends: Lu starred in 3 sports, has coached for 44 seasons