Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Bobcats TXSO @ TXST

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

0-4  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 5:00 PM ET
Strahan Arena at the University Events Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

3-2  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
TIGERS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
99.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Texas State)
TigersTXSO (-3.5) 0 BobcatsTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

0.3%

Bobcats Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

TXSO By 1-7 points

0.3%

TXSO By 8-14 points

0.0%

TXST By 1-7 points

2.2%

TXST By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
36
TEXAS SOUTHERN
63
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
65
TEXAS SOUTHERN
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 99.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 TXSO @ TXST 67 - 77
Dec 1, 2024 TXST @ TXSO 72 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +141.0% more
Texas State: 5.1 vs Texas Southern: 2.1
Steals (L5) +68.3% more
Texas State: 8.1 vs Texas Southern: 4.8
Assists (L5) +38.7% more
Texas State: 15.5 vs Texas Southern: 11.2
Rebounding (L5) +12.5% more
Texas State: 39.7 vs Texas Southern: 35.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score 36.0 67
TXST Score 63.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 43.8 33.0 / 25.0
Assists 15.5 / 11.2 12.0 / 5.0
Blocks 5.1 / 2.1 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 46.4 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 63.8 75.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 35.3 35.0 / 28.0
Steals 8.1 / 4.8 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 14.4 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
TXST Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
TXST Advantage
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
TXSO
TXST
TXSO
ML
42% 13-18
64% 18-10
83% 25-5
71% 17-7
ATS
48% 15-16
61% 17-11
84% 26-5
71% 17-7
TTL
65% 20-11
71% 20-8
100% 31-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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