Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Highlanders UND @ UCR

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

1-3  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 5:00 PM ET
SRC Arena
View Odds Details →

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

2-1  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
📊
HIGHLANDERS
100%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
HIGHLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (North Dakota)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 HighlandersUCR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

99.9%

Highlanders Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UND -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

UND By 1-7 points

1.1%

UND By 8-14 points

4.8%

UCR By 1-7 points

0.1%

UCR By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
89
NORTH DAKOTA
59
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
68
NORTH DAKOTA
72
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Highlanders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Hawks (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Highlanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UND @ UCR 76 - 74
Nov 6, 2025 UCR @ UND 74 - 70
Dec 3, 2023 UND @ UCR 62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +60.6% more
North Dakota: 13.0 vs UC Riverside: 5.1
Blocks (L5) +34.7% more
North Dakota: 4.1 vs UC Riverside: 2.7
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
North Dakota: 16.9 vs UC Riverside: 13.8
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
North Dakota: 50.1% vs UC Riverside: 45.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 89.0 76
UCR Score 59.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 36.5 33.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.8 / 16.9 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 50.1 49.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 86.8 / 72.6 62.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 37.4 39.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.1 / 13.0 4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 10.8 21.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
UCR
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
UND
UCR
UND
ML
66% 21-11
44% 15-19
75% 24-8
50% 17-17
ATS
59% 19-13
50% 17-17
75% 24-8
50% 17-17
TTL
66% 21-11
65% 22-12
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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