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BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

1-2  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 10:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

2-1  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
📊
DONS
100%
BRAVES --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
BRADLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Bradley)
BravesBRAD (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

95.5%

Dons Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BRAD -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRAD)

BRAD By 1-7 points

12.2%

BRAD By 8-14 points

23.0%

SF By 1-7 points

3.3%

SF By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
BRADLEY
64
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
69
BRADLEY
76
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Dons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 BRAD @ SF 64 - 75
Dec 18, 2024 SF @ BRAD 64 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +31.2% more
Bradley: 10.4 vs San Francisco: 7.1
Rebounding (L5) +27.1% more
San Francisco: 41.0 vs Bradley: 32.2
Assists (L5) +22.1% more
San Francisco: 15.3 vs Bradley: 12.5
Blocks (L5) +19.7% more
San Francisco: 3.8 vs Bradley: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRAD Score 81.0 64
SF Score 64.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 27.7 45.0 / 24.0
Assists 15.3 / 12.5 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 43.3 50.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 72.3 70.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 41.0 / 32.2 46.0 / 25.0
Steals 7.1 / 10.4 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 11.6 18.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
SF
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
SF Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
BRAD
SF
BRAD
ML
39% 13-20
65% 22-12
64% 21-12
68% 23-11
ATS
42% 14-19
59% 20-14
64% 21-12
68% 23-11
TTL
73% 24-9
68% 23-11
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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