DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
9-2 | Road
123
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
8-4 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
NUGGETS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
267.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
DEN By 1-7 points
21.6%
DEN By 8-14 points
10.7%
MIN By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
132
DENVER
Minnesota
135
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Denver
108
DENVER
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o237.0
Loss
Proj Total: 267.0
D
Sim
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+81.8% more
Minnesota: 4.9
vs
Denver: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+19.9% more
Minnesota: 14.6
vs
Denver: 12.2
Steals (L5)
+16.7% more
Minnesota: 8.8
vs
Denver: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+8.5% more
Minnesota: 27.0
vs
Denver: 24.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
132.0
123
MIN Score
135.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 37.2
29.0 / 48.0
Assists
27.0 / 24.9
23.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.7
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 51.1
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 76.2
87.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
44.2 / 43.4
40.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.8 / 7.5
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 12.2
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DEN
MIN
DEN
ML
54%
63-53
54%
57-48
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
67-49
63%
65-38-2
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
TTL
63%
72-43-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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