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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

7-4-5  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Enterprise Center
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ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

6-8-4  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Shea Theodore
GOALTENDER

Shea Theodore

#27 | Defense
@
Joel Hofer
GOALTENDER

Joel Hofer

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Shea Theodore None-None -- -- --
Joel Hofer None-None 4.00 0.882 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 4.00
-- Save % 0.882
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
📊
BLUES
100%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
BLUES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Vegas)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 BluesSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

84.1%

Blues Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)

VGK By 1 goal

17.5%

VGK By 2-3 goals

37.2%

STL By 1 goal

6.6%

STL By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
VEGAS
1
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blues Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Knights (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Blues (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 STL @ VGK 2 - 4
Jan 2, 2026 VGK @ STL 3 - 4
Nov 15, 2025 VGK @ STL 4 - 1
Jan 23, 2025 VGK @ STL 4 - 2
Jan 20, 2025 STL @ VGK 5 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +28.4% more
Vegas: 31.4 vs St. Louis: 22.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +18.4% more
St. Louis: 16.3 vs Vegas: 13.8
Power Play % (L5) +15.3%
St. Louis: 22.5% vs Vegas: 7.3%
Hits (L5) +13.7% more
St. Louis: 22.7 vs Vegas: 20.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 3.0 4
STL Score 1.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.3 / 13.8 15.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 52.4 / 50.1 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 22.7 / 20.0 24.0 / 12.0
Power Play % 22.5 / 7.3 0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 22.5 / 31.4 23.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 4.9 / 4.8 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
VGK
STL
VGK
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 1-1-1
25% 1-3
50% 1-1-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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