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NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

2-2  |  Road

41
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 7:00 PM ET
SECU Arena
View Odds Details →

TOWSON

TIGERSTOW

2-1  |  Home

51
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
SPARTANS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TOWSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Towson)
SpartansNORF (-3.5) 0 TigersTOW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

18.4%

Tigers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOW -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOW)

NORF By 1-7 points

12.2%

NORF By 8-14 points

4.0%

TOW By 1-7 points

24.3%

TOW By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORFOLK STATE
78
TOWSON
Simulated Score
68
NORFOLK STATE
72
TOWSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2025 NORF @ TOW 41 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.5% more
Norfolk State: 3.5 vs Towson: 2.2
Assists (L5) +23.6% more
Norfolk State: 12.9 vs Towson: 9.9
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
Norfolk State: 8.6 vs Towson: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
Norfolk State: 73.7% vs Towson: 62.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NORF Score 69.0 41
TOW Score 78.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 30.4 18.0 / 13.0
Assists 9.9 / 12.9 8.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.5 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 45.1 29.0 / 28.0
Free Throw % 62.7 / 73.7 61.0 / 27.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 37.6 50.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.5 / 8.6 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 13.1 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
TOW Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
TOW
14-17-1 (45.2%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
TOW
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOW
NORF
TOW
NORF
ML
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
62% 20-12
71% 20-8
ATS
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
62% 20-12
72% 21-8
TTL
53% 17-15
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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