STONEHILL
SKYHAWKSSTO
1-2 | Road
71
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
1-2 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
0%
STAGS
100%
SKYHAWKS
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Stonehill)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STO -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)
STO By 1-7 points
24.3%
STO By 8-14 points
26.8%
FAIR By 1-7 points
12.2%
FAIR By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Stonehill
74
STONEHILL
Fairfield
65
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Stonehill
68
STONEHILL
Fairfield
75
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Skyhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Skyhawks (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
STO @ FAIR
71 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+31.2% more
Stonehill: 14.0
vs
Fairfield: 9.6
Turnovers (L5)
+16.3% more
Stonehill: 16.2
vs
Fairfield: 13.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Stonehill: 40.7%
vs
Fairfield: 37.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Stonehill: 32.8%
vs
Fairfield: 31.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STO Score
74.0
71
FAIR Score
65.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 32.8
32.0 / 39.0
Assists
9.6 / 14.0
9.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.3
9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
37.4 / 40.7
34.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 66.0
75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
40.1 / 38.6
43.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.2 / 5.3
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 16.2
6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STO
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STO
Advantage
14-15-2
(48.3%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5%
Total +/-: -4.0
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
STO
FAIR
STO
ML
55%
18-15
45%
15-18
61%
20-13
70%
23-10
ATS
48%
16-17
39%
13-20
61%
20-13
70%
23-10
TTL
48%
16-17
55%
18-15
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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