SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
2-1 | Road
75
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
2-1 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
RAZORBACKS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
SAM By 1-7 points
0.6%
SAM By 8-14 points
0.1%
ARK By 1-7 points
4.0%
ARK By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Samford
78
SAMFORD
Arkansas
102
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Samford
68
SAMFORD
Arkansas
82
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Razorbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks (+24.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Razorbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o159.5
Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
SAM @ ARK
75 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+95.7% more
Arkansas: 4.1
vs
Samford: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+30.8% more
Arkansas: 7.4
vs
Samford: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+18.9% more
Arkansas: 16.1
vs
Samford: 13.5
Rebounding (L5)
+15.8% more
Arkansas: 41.9
vs
Samford: 36.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAM Score
78.0
75
ARK Score
102.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 36.5
35.0 / 34.0
Assists
16.1 / 13.5
13.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.1
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 44.5
45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
78.1 / 68.0
77.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
41.9 / 36.2
38.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.7
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 11.1
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
SAM
ARK
SAM
ML
68%
25-12
65%
20-11
81%
25-6
68%
21-10
ATS
70%
26-11
68%
21-10
81%
25-6
68%
21-10
TTL
57%
21-16
35%
11-20
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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