Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Tar Heels NCCU @ UNC

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

1-3  |  Road

53
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

3-0  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
EAGLES --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (North Carolina)
EaglesNCCU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

15.9%

Tar Heels Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

NCCU By 1-7 points

10.7%

NCCU By 8-14 points

3.3%

UNC By 1-7 points

23.0%

UNC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
66
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
76
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
62
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
88
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+34.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2025 NCCU @ UNC 53 - 97
Dec 12, 2020 NCCU @ UNC 67 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +50.5% more
North Carolina: 44.4 vs North Carolina Central: 29.5
Blocks (L5) +44.0% more
North Carolina: 3.1 vs North Carolina Central: 2.2
Assists (L5) +25.5% more
North Carolina: 16.6 vs North Carolina Central: 13.2
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
North Carolina: 45.0% vs North Carolina Central: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 66.0 53
UNC Score 76.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 37.5 39.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.6 / 13.2 21.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.2 14.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 39.9 55.0 / 24.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 73.1 74.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 44.4 / 29.5 51.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.3 / 9.2 1.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.5 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
NCCU
UNC
NCCU
ML
76% 25-8
65% 20-11
69% 22-10
81% 22-5
ATS
73% 24-9
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
81% 22-5
TTL
55% 18-15
55% 17-14
100% 32-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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