PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
2-1 | Road
88
COLORADO
BUFFALOESCOLO
2-0 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
BUFFALOES
0%
FRIARS
--
BUFFALOES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)
PROV By 1-7 points
21.6%
PROV By 8-14 points
10.7%
COLO By 1-7 points
27.2%
COLO By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
68
PROVIDENCE
Colorado
71
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Providence
68
PROVIDENCE
Colorado
72
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Buffaloes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buffaloes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Buffaloes (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Buffaloes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
PROV @ COLO
88 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+11.8% more
Colorado: 7.1
vs
Providence: 6.4
Blocks (L5)
+39.2% more
Providence: 4.2
vs
Colorado: 2.5
Rebounding (L5)
+21.6% more
Providence: 43.4
vs
Colorado: 34.1
Turnovers (L5)
+20.8% more
Providence: 13.6
vs
Colorado: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
68.0
88
COLO Score
71.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 35.8
35.0 / 24.0
Assists
15.0 / 16.6
18.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.2
1.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 48.1
52.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
69.7 / 79.9
85.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 43.4
43.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.4
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 13.6
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
COLO
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
COLO
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
PROV
COLO
PROV
ML
61%
20-13
59%
19-13
69%
22-10
67%
20-10
ATS
73%
24-9
50%
16-16
69%
22-10
67%
20-10
TTL
45%
15-18
44%
14-18
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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