Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Fighting Illini COLG @ ILL

COLGATE

RAIDERSCOLG

1-2  |  Road

65
FINAL
Fri, Nov 14 • 9:00 PM ET
State Farm Center
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

3-0  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
RAIDERS --
FIGHTING ILLINI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Illinois)
RaidersCOLG (-3.5) 0 Fighting IlliniILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

13.6%

Fighting Illini Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

COLG By 1-7 points

9.3%

COLG By 8-14 points

2.7%

ILL By 1-7 points

21.6%

ILL By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
69
COLGATE
80
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
68
COLGATE
85
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Illini Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Illini Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Illini (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Fighting Illini (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 14, 2025 COLG @ ILL 65 - 84
Dec 17, 2023 COLG @ ILL 57 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +85.9% more
Illinois: 5.3 vs Colgate: 2.8
Rebounding (L5) +43.1% more
Illinois: 44.3 vs Colgate: 30.9
Steals (L5) +33.3% more
Colgate: 5.6 vs Illinois: 3.8
Assists (L5) +12.3% more
Colgate: 14.4 vs Illinois: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLG Score 69.0 65
ILL Score 80.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 41.5 30.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.6 / 14.4 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.3 / 2.8 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 51.2 38.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 79.1 88.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 44.3 / 30.9 49.0 / 29.0
Steals 3.8 / 5.6 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 12.2 7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -1.5
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.9
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
COLG
ILL
COLG
ML
65% 24-13
59% 19-13
57% 20-15
69% 22-10
ATS
70% 26-11
72% 23-9
57% 20-15
70% 23-10
TTL
57% 21-16
78% 25-7
100% 35-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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