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SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

1-2  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Nov 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

2-1  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Grambling)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 TigersGRAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

38.2%

Tigers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GRAM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

USM By 1-7 points

21.6%

USM By 8-14 points

10.7%

GRAM By 1-7 points

27.2%

GRAM By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
60
SOUTHERN MISS
63
GRAMBLING
Simulated Score
65
SOUTHERN MISS
78
GRAMBLING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 8, 2025 GRAM @ USM 60 - 68
Nov 13, 2025 USM @ GRAM 70 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.3% more
Grambling: 15.3 vs Southern Miss: 11.9
Steals (L5) +22.0% more
Grambling: 9.8 vs Southern Miss: 8.0
Blocks (L5) +12.3% more
Grambling: 4.2 vs Southern Miss: 3.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Grambling: 36.7% vs Southern Miss: 29.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 60.0 70
GRAM Score 63.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 29.1 45.0 / 25.0
Assists 10.7 / 13.4 19.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.7 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 44.1 54.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 76.8 75.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 40.7 28.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.8 / 8.0 6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 11.9 17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
GRAM
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
GRAM
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GRAM
USM
GRAM
USM
ML
68% 21-10
53% 18-16
68% 17-8
73% 24-9
ATS
61% 19-12
59% 20-14
68% 17-8
74% 25-9
TTL
58% 18-13
68% 23-11
100% 25-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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