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CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

3-0  |  Road

96
FINAL
Thu, Nov 13 • 9:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

2-0  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
GOLDEN BEARS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (California)
Golden BearsCAL (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Bears Cover

57.9%

Wildcats Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CAL By 1-7 points

26.8%

CAL By 8-14 points

18.6%

KSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

KSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
79
CALIFORNIA
77
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
65
CALIFORNIA
72
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Bears (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 13, 2025 CAL @ KSU 96 - 99
Nov 11, 2022 KSU @ CAL 63 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
California: 41.7 vs Kansas State: 36.4
Free Throw % (L5) +8.5%
California: 80.6% vs Kansas State: 72.1%
Turnovers (L5) +34.9% more
Kansas State: 14.5 vs California: 10.7
Assists (L5) +31.3% more
Kansas State: 18.3 vs California: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 79.0 96
KSU Score 77.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.1 / 29.2 50.0 / 54.0
Assists 18.3 / 13.9 21.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.4 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 43.9 64.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 80.6 67.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 41.7 25.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.2 / 5.6 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 10.7 17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
CAL
KSU
CAL
ML
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
77% 24-7
ATS
62% 20-12
64% 21-12
69% 22-10
78% 25-7
TTL
47% 15-17
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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