LOS ANGELES
KINGSLA
8-5-4 | Road
4
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
8-8-1 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Darcy Kuemper
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Morgan Rielly
#44 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper | None-None | 2.97 | 0.800 | -- |
| Morgan Rielly | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.97
GAA
--
0.800
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
KINGS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
LA By 1 goal
12.1%
LA By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
2
LOS ANGELES
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
TOR @ LA
6 - 7
Nov 13, 2025
LA @ TOR
4 - 3
Mar 29, 2025
TOR @ LA
3 - 1
Oct 16, 2024
LA @ TOR
2 - 6
Jan 2, 2024
TOR @ LA
3 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+115.3% more
Toronto: 25.2
vs
Los Angeles: 11.7
Takeaways (L5)
+31.4% more
Toronto: 4.4
vs
Los Angeles: 3.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+24.5% more
Toronto: 16.4
vs
Los Angeles: 13.2
Power Play % (L5)
+10.5%
Toronto: 22.4%
vs
Los Angeles: 12.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LA Score
3.0
4
TOR Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.4 / 13.2
20.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
56.4 / 51.7
71.7 / 28.3
Hits
25.2 / 11.7
26.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
2241.0 / 1195.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.6 / 27.8
15.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 3.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
LA
TOR
LA
ML
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
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