PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
1-2 | Road
71
WESTERN MICHIGAN
BRONCOSWMU
1-2 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
BRONCOS
0%
MASTODONS
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Western Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WMU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)
PFW By 1-7 points
13.7%
PFW By 8-14 points
4.8%
WMU By 1-7 points
25.3%
WMU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
67
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Western Michigan
75
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
70
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Western Michigan
75
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Broncos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Broncos (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Broncos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 12, 2025
PFW @ WMU
71 - 83
Nov 27, 2021
PFW @ WMU
85 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.1% more
Western Michigan: 15.1
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 10.6
Rebounding (L5)
+26.3% more
Western Michigan: 37.4
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 29.6
Blocks (L5)
+15.5% more
Western Michigan: 2.5
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+47.4% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 13.1
vs
Western Michigan: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
67.0
71
WMU Score
75.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 35.8
28.0 / 24.0
Assists
12.4 / 17.6
15.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.1
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 51.2
44.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 75.6
73.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 29.6
53.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.9 / 13.1
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 10.6
15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
WMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
WMU
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
PFW
WMU
PFW
ML
60%
18-12
59%
19-13
70%
21-9
74%
23-8
ATS
67%
20-10
62%
20-12
70%
21-9
74%
23-8
TTL
57%
17-13
59%
19-13
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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