Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Terriers BRWN @ BU

BROWN

BEARSBRWN

0-2  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Case Gym
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BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

1-1  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
TERRIERS
0%
BEARS --
TERRIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Boston University)
BearsBRWN (-3.5) 0 TerriersBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

30.9%

Terriers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BU)

BRWN By 1-7 points

18.6%

BRWN By 8-14 points

8.0%

BU By 1-7 points

27.2%

BU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
65
BROWN
70
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
68
BROWN
72
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Terriers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Terriers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Terriers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Terriers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o129.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u129.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 BRWN @ BU 77 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +10.7%
Boston University: 71.9% vs Brown: 61.2%
Turnovers (L5) +9.7% more
Boston University: 14.2 vs Brown: 12.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Boston University: 34.6% vs Brown: 27.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Boston University: 41.3% vs Brown: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRWN Score 65.0 77
BU Score 70.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 27.0 52.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.7 / 15.3 23.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 39.5 59.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 61.2 89.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 38.9 31.0 / 22.0
Steals 5.0 / 5.7 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 12.9 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRWN
9-18-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
BU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRWN
14-12-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
BU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BRWN
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0% Total +/-: +0.3
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BU
BRWN
BU
BRWN
ML
68% 23-11
56% 15-12
62% 21-13
67% 18-9
ATS
62% 21-13
59% 16-11
62% 21-13
67% 18-9
TTL
65% 22-12
59% 16-11
100% 34-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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