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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

1-2  |  Road

68
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 10:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

2-0  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
CARDINAL
0%
BOBCATS --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Stanford)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

15.9%

Cardinal Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STAN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

MTST By 1-7 points

10.7%

MTST By 8-14 points

3.3%

STAN By 1-7 points

23.0%

STAN By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
56
MONTANA STATE
66
STANFORD
Simulated Score
67
MONTANA STATE
78
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinal Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinal (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 MTST @ STAN 68 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +98.8% more
Stanford: 4.9 vs Montana State: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +22.6% more
Stanford: 35.9 vs Montana State: 29.3
Free Throw % (L5) +1.7%
Stanford: 73.5% vs Montana State: 71.9%
Assists (L5) +10.5% more
Montana State: 13.8 vs Stanford: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 56.0 68
STAN Score 66.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 35.6 26.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.3 / 13.8 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.5 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 52.0 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 71.9 76.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 29.3 39.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.0 / 9.2 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.5 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
MTST
STAN
MTST
ML
48% 16-17
52% 16-15
50% 16-16
67% 20-10
ATS
48% 16-17
52% 16-15
50% 16-16
67% 20-10
TTL
55% 18-15
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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