Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Dolphins WSH @ MIA

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

3-7  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 9:30 AM ET
Santiago Bernabéu
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

3-7  |  Home

16
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
Player
Tress Way None-None
Riley Patterson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
0%
📊
DOLPHINS
100%
COMMANDERS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

58.5%

Dolphins Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-6 points

17.0%

WSH By 7-13 points

17.5%

MIA By 1-6 points

15.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
WASHINGTON
17
MIAMI
Simulated Score
27
WASHINGTON
17
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commanders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commanders (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Commanders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 WSH @ MIA 13 - 16
Dec 3, 2023 MIA @ WSH 45 - 15
Oct 13, 2019 WSH @ MIA 17 - 16
Sep 13, 2015 MIA @ WSH 17 - 10
Nov 13, 2011 WSH @ MIA 9 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.3% more
Miami: 2.0 vs Washington: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Miami: 134.9 vs Washington: 116.6
First Downs (L5) +9.3% more
Miami: 18.4 vs Washington: 16.8
Total Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Miami: 328.4 vs Washington: 301.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 20.0 13
MIA Score 17.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 16.8 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 193.5 / 184.5 142.0 / 207.0
Rushing Yards 134.9 / 116.6 169.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 328.4 / 301.1 311.0 / 379.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.4 5.8 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Giants' JJ McCarthy Earns Top Marks from Matt Nagy Ahead of Poss…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
USC Looks to Build Momentum in Road Test at Penn State
si 3 hours, 30 minutes ago
Bengals Defender Exposes Malik Willis's Pre-Throw Tic Before Dol…
bleacherreport 3 hours, 39 minutes ago
Commanders Roll Dice: Jayden Daniels to Start vs. Giants Despite…
newsweek 9 hours, 43 minutes ago
Jayden Daniels Returns to Full Practice as Commanders Grapple wi…
headtopics 21 hours, 59 minutes ago