Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Titans HOU @ TEN

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

4-5  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-8  |  Home

13
Key Game
Tremon Smith
KEY GAME

Tremon Smith

#11 | Cornerback
@
Joey Slye
KEY GAME

Joey Slye

#6 | Place kicker
Player
Tremon Smith None-None
Joey Slye None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
TITANS
100%
TEXANS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

84.1%

Titans Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

12.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.0%

TEN By 1-6 points

7.9%

TEN By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
27
HOUSTON
13
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
20
HOUSTON
24
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o37.0 Loss
Proj Total: 40.0
D
Sim u37.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 HOU @ TEN 16 - 13
Sep 28, 2025 TEN @ HOU 0 - 26
Jan 5, 2025 HOU @ TEN 23 - 14
Nov 24, 2024 TEN @ HOU 32 - 27
Dec 31, 2023 TEN @ HOU 3 - 26
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +30.6% more
Houston: 21.5 vs Tennessee: 14.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.4% more
Houston: 245.5 vs Tennessee: 173.3
Total Yards (L5) +28.8% more
Houston: 360.7 vs Tennessee: 256.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.5% more
Houston: 115.2 vs Tennessee: 83.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 27.0 16
TEN Score 13.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.9 / 21.5 14.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 173.3 / 245.5 171.0 / 240.0
Rushing Yards 83.6 / 115.2 58.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 256.9 / 360.7 229.0 / 315.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.2 4.0 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
TEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
HOU
TEN
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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