Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Eagles DET @ PHI

DETROIT

LIONSDET

6-3  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 8:20 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

7-2  |  Home

16
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
LIONS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

47.2%

Eagles Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

DET By 1-6 points

16.1%

DET By 7-13 points

14.6%

PHI By 1-6 points

16.7%

PHI By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
DETROIT
21
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
24
DETROIT
27
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 DET @ PHI 9 - 16
Sep 11, 2022 PHI @ DET 38 - 35
Oct 31, 2021 PHI @ DET 44 - 6
Sep 22, 2019 DET @ PHI 27 - 24
Oct 9, 2016 PHI @ DET 23 - 24
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +23.5% more
Detroit: 21.9 vs Philadelphia: 16.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +20.9% more
Detroit: 257.9 vs Philadelphia: 203.8
Total Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Detroit: 409.1 vs Philadelphia: 334.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Detroit: 151.2 vs Philadelphia: 130.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 20.0 9
PHI Score 21.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 21.9 16.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 203.8 / 257.9 124.0 / 243.0
Rushing Yards 130.7 / 151.2 148.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 334.6 / 409.1 272.0 / 317.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 6.4 3.9 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DET
PHI
DET
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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