NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
0-2 | Road
83
NORTH ALABAMA
LIONSUNA
1-1 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
0%
LIONS
100%
DEMONS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNA +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)
NWST By 1-7 points
27.2%
NWST By 8-14 points
23.0%
UNA By 1-7 points
18.6%
UNA By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
67
NORTHWESTERN STATE
North Alabama
62
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
67
NORTHWESTERN STATE
North Alabama
73
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Demons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 11, 2025
NWST @ UNA
83 - 87
Nov 24, 2024
UNA @ NWST
58 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+29.5% more
Northwestern State: 14.5
vs
North Alabama: 10.2
Steals (L5)
+12.1% more
Northwestern State: 7.6
vs
North Alabama: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.5%
Northwestern State: 75.1%
vs
North Alabama: 66.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Northwestern State: 37.5%
vs
North Alabama: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
67.0
83
UNA Score
62.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 37.5
35.0 / 33.0
Assists
10.6 / 10.8
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.0
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 39.8
48.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
66.7 / 75.1
68.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
38.7 / 29.1
38.0 / 27.0
Steals
6.7 / 7.6
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 14.5
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
UNA
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
UNA
10-17-1
(37.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
NWST
UNA
NWST
ML
43%
13-17
68%
21-10
57%
16-12
77%
23-7
ATS
60%
18-12
68%
21-10
57%
16-12
77%
23-7
TTL
63%
19-11
39%
12-19
100%
28-0
100%
30-0
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