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CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

0-2  |  Road

66
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

2-0  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
COUGARS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Butler)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

30.9%

Bulldogs Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUT -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)

CHST By 1-7 points

18.6%

CHST By 8-14 points

8.0%

BUT By 1-7 points

27.2%

BUT By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
73
CHICAGO STATE
78
BUTLER
Simulated Score
61
CHICAGO STATE
82
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+26.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 CHST @ BUT 66 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +111.1% more
Butler: 5.1 vs Chicago State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +52.7% more
Butler: 46.0 vs Chicago State: 30.1
Assists (L5) +37.9% more
Butler: 15.5 vs Chicago State: 11.3
Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Butler: 48.9% vs Chicago State: 39.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 73.0 66
BUT Score 78.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 33.0 47.0 / 40.0
Assists 15.5 / 11.3 24.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.1 / 2.4 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 39.8 53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 79.1 70.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 46.0 / 30.1 36.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.0 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.0 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
CHST
BUT
CHST
ML
62% 20-12
75% 24-8
65% 20-11
73% 22-8
ATS
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
65% 20-11
73% 22-8
TTL
50% 16-16
44% 14-18
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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