PENNSYLVANIA
QUAKERSPENN
1-1 | Road
81
PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
1-1 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
100%
FRIARS
0%
QUAKERS
--
FRIARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Providence)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)
PENN By 1-7 points
16.9%
PENN By 8-14 points
6.8%
PROV By 1-7 points
26.8%
PROV By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pennsylvania
71
PENNSYLVANIA
Providence
77
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
Pennsylvania
63
PENNSYLVANIA
Providence
78
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Friars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Friars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Friars (+19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Friars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u172.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u172.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 11, 2025
PENN @ PROV
81 - 106
Nov 23, 2019
PENN @ PROV
81 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+66.8% more
Providence: 4.3
vs
Pennsylvania: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+8.8% more
Providence: 7.5
vs
Pennsylvania: 6.9
Turnovers (L5)
+8.9% more
Pennsylvania: 14.1
vs
Providence: 12.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Pennsylvania: 37.0%
vs
Providence: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PENN Score
71.0
81
PROV Score
77.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 37.0
43.0 / 43.0
Assists
13.4 / 14.4
23.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.3 / 2.6
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 47.2
54.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
74.4 / 76.9
91.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
40.7 / 39.9
49.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.5 / 6.9
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 14.1
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
PROV
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
PENN
PROV
PENN
ML
59%
19-13
53%
16-14
67%
20-10
76%
22-7
ATS
50%
16-16
63%
19-11
67%
20-10
76%
22-7
TTL
44%
14-18
70%
21-9
100%
30-0
100%
29-0
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