Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Racers @ Mustangs MUR @ SMU

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

2-0  |  Road

91
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

2-0  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
📊
MUSTANGS
100%
RACERS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Murray State)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

69.1%

Mustangs Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MUR -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

MUR By 1-7 points

27.2%

MUR By 8-14 points

23.0%

SMU By 1-7 points

18.6%

SMU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
MURRAY STATE
69
SMU
Simulated Score
65
MURRAY STATE
78
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Racers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 MUR @ SMU 91 - 102
Dec 22, 2023 SMU @ MUR 92 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.5% more
Murray State: 8.1 vs SMU: 6.7
Assists (L5) +10.2% more
Murray State: 17.4 vs SMU: 15.7
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Murray State: 75.7% vs SMU: 73.9%
Blocks (L5) +37.3% more
SMU: 4.5 vs Murray State: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 74.0 91
SMU Score 69.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 32.4 44.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.7 / 17.4 16.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 41.8 47.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 75.7 83.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 39.1 42.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.1 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 9.4 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
MUR
SMU
MUR
ML
59% 20-14
58% 19-14
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
ATS
62% 21-13
52% 17-16
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
TTL
56% 19-15
70% 23-10
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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