CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
1-1 | Road
56
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
1-1 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
RAZORBACKS
0%
BEARS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
CARK By 1-7 points
20.1%
CARK By 8-14 points
9.3%
ARK By 1-7 points
27.4%
ARK By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Arkansas
77
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Arkansas
81
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Central Arkansas
63
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Arkansas
88
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Razorbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks (+35)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Razorbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 11, 2025
CARK @ ARK
56 - 93
Dec 14, 2024
CARK @ ARK
57 - 82
Dec 1, 2021
CARK @ ARK
60 - 97
Dec 12, 2020
CARK @ ARK
75 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+246.9% more
Arkansas: 5.1
vs
Central Arkansas: 1.5
Steals (L5)
+14.6% more
Arkansas: 8.7
vs
Central Arkansas: 7.6
Turnovers (L5)
+9.5% more
Central Arkansas: 12.6
vs
Arkansas: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
Central Arkansas: 78.5%
vs
Arkansas: 76.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CARK Score
77.0
56
ARK Score
81.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.4 / 30.2
38.0 / 10.0
Assists
15.6 / 14.7
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
5.1 / 1.5
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 43.5
49.0 / 28.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 78.5
82.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 39.2
49.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.6
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 12.6
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
ARK
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
CARK
ARK
CARK
ML
68%
25-12
67%
22-11
81%
25-6
70%
23-10
ATS
70%
26-11
61%
20-13
81%
25-6
70%
23-10
TTL
57%
21-16
50%
16-16-1
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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