Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Raiders @ Fighting Illini TTU @ ILL

TEXAS TECH

RED RAIDERSTTU

2-0  |  Road

77
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 8:30 PM ET
State Farm Center
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

2-0  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
RED RAIDERS
100%
📊
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
RED RAIDERS --
FIGHTING ILLINI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Illinois)
Red RaidersTTU (-3.5) 0 Fighting IlliniILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Raiders Cover

46.0%

Fighting Illini Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

TTU By 1-7 points

24.3%

TTU By 8-14 points

13.7%

ILL By 1-7 points

26.2%

ILL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
77
TEXAS TECH
78
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
72
TEXAS TECH
75
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Illini Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Illini Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Illini (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Fighting Illini (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 TTU @ ILL 77 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +90.2% more
Illinois: 5.4 vs Texas Tech: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +30.4% more
Illinois: 10.8 vs Texas Tech: 8.3
Rebounding (L5) +11.8% more
Illinois: 49.4 vs Texas Tech: 44.2
Free Throw % (L5) +11.3%
Illinois: 78.5% vs Texas Tech: 67.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TTU Score 77.0 77
ILL Score 78.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 36.1 32.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.5 / 15.7 5.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.4 / 2.9 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 45.0 49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 67.1 70.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 49.4 / 44.2 34.0 / 30.0
Steals 2.6 / 7.7 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 8.3 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
15-19-0
O: 44.1% / U: 55.9% Total +/-: -1.6
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
TTU
ILL
TTU
ML
65% 24-13
62% 21-13
57% 20-15
71% 22-9
ATS
70% 26-11
65% 22-12
57% 20-15
71% 22-9
TTL
57% 21-16
59% 20-14
100% 35-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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