GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
6-5 | Road
102
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
10-1 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
THUNDER
0%
WARRIORS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
GS By 1-7 points
24.3%
GS By 8-14 points
13.7%
OKC By 1-7 points
26.2%
OKC By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
124
GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
GS @ OKC
97 - 104
Jan 2, 2026
OKC @ GS
131 - 94
Dec 2, 2025
OKC @ GS
124 - 112
Nov 11, 2025
GS @ OKC
102 - 126
Jan 29, 2025
OKC @ GS
109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+16.2% more
Oklahoma City: 8.9
vs
Golden State: 7.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Oklahoma City: 77.3%
vs
Golden State: 70.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Oklahoma City: 47.3%
vs
Golden State: 44.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+26.3% more
Golden State: 12.2
vs
Oklahoma City: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
124.0
102
OKC Score
125.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 32.9
44.0 / 37.0
Assists
21.4 / 23.7
29.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.8
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 44.4
51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 70.6
84.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
43.9 / 41.8
40.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.9 / 7.7
12.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 12.2
20.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
GS
OKC
GS
ML
70%
80-34
55%
95-79
48%
46-49
58%
49-35
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
101-73
48%
46-49
58%
49-35
TTL
67%
76-38
77%
134-40
100%
95-0
100%
84-0
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