WESTERN KENTUCKY
HILLTOPPERSWKU
1-0 | Road
87
EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
1-0 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
0%
COLONELS
100%
HILLTOPPERS
--
COLONELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EKU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EKU)
WKU By 1-7 points
26.2%
WKU By 8-14 points
16.9%
EKU By 1-7 points
24.3%
EKU By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Kentucky
69
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Eastern Kentucky
68
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Western Kentucky
76
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Eastern Kentucky
72
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hilltoppers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hilltoppers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Colonels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Hilltoppers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 10, 2025
WKU @ EKU
87 - 79
Dec 3, 2023
EKU @ WKU
69 - 79
Nov 10, 2022
WKU @ EKU
66 - 60
Dec 4, 2021
EKU @ WKU
80 - 85
Nov 15, 2019
WKU @ EKU
79 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+61.7% more
Eastern Kentucky: 14.7
vs
Western Kentucky: 9.1
Blocks (L5)
+26.3% more
Eastern Kentucky: 3.1
vs
Western Kentucky: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+22.5% more
Eastern Kentucky: 10.7
vs
Western Kentucky: 8.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+17.5%
Eastern Kentucky: 38.4%
vs
Western Kentucky: 20.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WKU Score
69.0
87
EKU Score
68.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 20.9
30.0 / 22.0
Assists
14.7 / 9.1
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.5
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 39.1
48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 71.4
65.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 39.3
39.0 / 38.0
Steals
10.7 / 8.7
1.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 9.8
14.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
EKU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EKU
WKU
EKU
WKU
ML
44%
14-18
56%
18-14
69%
22-10
66%
21-11
ATS
56%
18-14
53%
17-15
69%
22-10
66%
21-11
TTL
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
