Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tommies @ Cougars STMN @ WSU

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

1-1  |  Road

71
FINAL
Mon, Nov 10 • 9:30 PM ET
Beasley Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

0-2  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
TOMMIES --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Washington State)
TommiesSTMN (-3.5) 0 CougarsWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tommies Cover

27.4%

Cougars Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

STMN By 1-7 points

16.9%

STMN By 8-14 points

6.8%

WSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

WSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
82
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
88
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
60
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
75
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 10, 2025 STMN @ WSU 71 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.6% more
Washington State: 12.1 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.4
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Washington State: 74.2% vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 64.9%
Rebounding (L5) +8.4% more
Washington State: 32.4 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 29.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Washington State: 29.7% vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 28.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STMN Score 82.0 71
WSU Score 88.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 28.1 38.0 / 34.0
Assists 12.6 / 14.8 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.1 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 47.3 52.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 64.9 94.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 29.9 36.0 / 19.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.9 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 8.4 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
WSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
STMN
WSU
STMN
ML
78% 25-7
64% 21-12
69% 20-9
64% 21-12
ATS
78% 25-7
70% 23-10
69% 20-9
64% 21-12
TTL
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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