Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas St @ Oklahoma St KSU @ OKST

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

4-5  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-8  |  Home

6
Key Game
Wendell Gregory
KEY GAME

Wendell Gregory

#1 | Defensive End
@
LaDainian Fields
KEY GAME

LaDainian Fields

#9 | Cornerback
Player
Wendell Gregory None-None
LaDainian Fields None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS ST
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
KANSAS ST --
OKLAHOMA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Kansas State)
Kansas StKSU (-3.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas St Cover

99.9%

Oklahoma St Cover

0.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KSU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

KSU By 1-6 points

0.4%

KSU By 7-13 points

1.5%

OKST By 1-6 points

0.1%

OKST By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
42
KANSAS STATE
0
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS STATE
28
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kansas St (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Oklahoma St (-19.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 KSU @ OKST 14 - 6
Sep 28, 2024 OKST @ KSU 20 - 42
Oct 6, 2023 KSU @ OKST 21 - 29
Oct 29, 2022 OKST @ KSU 0 - 48
Sep 25, 2021 KSU @ OKST 20 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.1% more
Kansas State: 2.2 vs Oklahoma State: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.1% more
Kansas State: 145.3 vs Oklahoma State: 108.9
Total Yards (L5) +21.7% more
Kansas State: 361.4 vs Oklahoma State: 282.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 42.0 14
OKST Score 0.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 16.7 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 108.9 / 145.3 147.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 282.9 / 361.4 373.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.2 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
KSU
OKST
KSU
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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