Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ Ball State EMU @ BALL

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

3-7  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

4-5  |  Home

9
Key Game
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
@
Ameir Glenn
KEY GAME

Ameir Glenn

#56 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Rudy Kessinger None-None
Ameir Glenn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
0%
📊
BALL STATE
100%
E MICHIGAN --
BALL STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Eastern Michigan)
E MichiganEMU (-3.5) 0 Ball StateBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

98.7%

Ball State Cover

1.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around EMU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

EMU By 1-6 points

2.5%

EMU By 7-13 points

6.6%

BALL By 1-6 points

0.9%

BALL By 7-13 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38
EASTERN MICHIGAN
7
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
24
EASTERN MICHIGAN
27
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI E Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ball State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI E Michigan (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim Ball State (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 EMU @ BALL 24 - 9
Oct 7, 2023 BALL @ EMU 10 - 24
Oct 22, 2022 EMU @ BALL 20 - 16
Oct 16, 2021 BALL @ EMU 38 - 31
Nov 11, 2020 EMU @ BALL 31 - 38
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +29.0% more
Eastern Michigan: 20.5 vs Ball State: 14.6
Total Yards (L5) +26.4% more
Eastern Michigan: 368.4 vs Ball State: 271.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.8% more
Eastern Michigan: 140.4 vs Ball State: 118.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Eastern Michigan: 0.4 vs Ball State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 38.0 24
BALL Score 7.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.6 / 20.5 13.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 118.2 / 140.4 163.0 / 151.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 271.2 / 368.4 225.0 / 380.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
EMU
BALL
EMU
ML
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
100% 5-0
50% 3-3
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
TTL
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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