Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wisconsin @ Indiana WIS @ IU

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

3-6  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

10-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Thomas Heiberger
KEY GAME

Thomas Heiberger

#19 | Linebacker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Mitch McCarthy

#44 | Punter
Player
Thomas Heiberger None-None
Mitch McCarthy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WISCONSIN
100%
📊
INDIANA
0%
WISCONSIN --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Indiana)
WisconsinWIS (-3.5) 0 IndianaIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wisconsin Cover

0.1%

Indiana Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

WIS By 1-6 points

0.1%

WIS By 7-13 points

0.0%

IU By 1-6 points

0.4%

IU By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
0
WISCONSIN
42
INDIANA
Simulated Score
17
WISCONSIN
31
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Indiana Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Indiana Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Indiana (-28.5) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Indiana (-28.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u43.5 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 WIS @ IU 7 - 31
Nov 4, 2023 WIS @ IU 14 - 20
Dec 5, 2020 IU @ WIS 14 - 6
Nov 4, 2017 WIS @ IU 45 - 17
Nov 16, 2013 IU @ WIS 3 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +109.6% more
Indiana: 440.2 vs Wisconsin: 210.0
First Downs (L5) +96.7% more
Indiana: 24.1 vs Wisconsin: 12.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +68.9% more
Indiana: 205.2 vs Wisconsin: 121.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +31.0% more
Indiana: 0.6 vs Wisconsin: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 0.0 7
IU Score 42.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.1 / 12.3 19.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 205.2 / 121.5 83.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.2 0.58 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 440.2 / 210.0 388.0 / 168.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
WIS
IU
WIS
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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