Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ Tulsa ORST @ TLSA

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

2-8  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Chapman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULSA

TULSATLSA

2-7  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jaylen Hill
KEY GAME

Jaylen Hill

#91 | Defensive Tackle
@
Jewlyen Roberts
KEY GAME

Jewlyen Roberts

#84 | Tight End
Player
Jaylen Hill None-None
Jewlyen Roberts None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
0%
📊
TULSA
100%
OREGON ST --
TULSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Oregon State)
Oregon StORST (-3.5) 0 TulsaTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

99.9%

Tulsa Cover

0.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ORST -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

ORST By 1-6 points

0.4%

ORST By 7-13 points

1.5%

TLSA By 1-6 points

0.1%

TLSA By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
42
OREGON STATE
0
TULSA
Simulated Score
17
OREGON STATE
34
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Tulsa Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oregon St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Tulsa (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 ORST @ TLSA 14 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.1% more
Oregon State: 179.1 vs Tulsa: 153.9
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
Tulsa: 2.0 vs Oregon State: 1.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Tulsa: 0.4 vs Oregon State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 42.0 14
TLSA Score 0.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 22.4 23.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 153.9 / 179.1 283.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 398.3 / 379.0 446.0 / 310.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
ORST
TLSA
ORST
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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