Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Marshall @ Georgia St MRSH @ GAST

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

4-5  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 2:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-8  |  Home

18
Key Game
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw
KEY GAME

Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw

#5 | Wide Receiver
@
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson
KEY GAME

Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson

#1 | Defensive End
Player
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw None-None
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARSHALL
0%
📊
GEORGIA ST
100%
MARSHALL --
GEORGIA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
76.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MarshallMRSH (-3.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marshall Cover

33.4%

Georgia St Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GAST +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

MRSH By 1-6 points

16.7%

MRSH By 7-13 points

19.0%

GAST By 1-6 points

13.5%

GAST By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
41
MARSHALL
35
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
24
MARSHALL
27
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marshall Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Georgia St (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
C
Sim Georgia St (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 76.0
C
Sim u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 MRSH @ GAST 30 - 18
Oct 17, 2024 GAST @ MRSH 20 - 35
Oct 14, 2023 MRSH @ GAST 24 - 41
Nov 26, 2022 GAST @ MRSH 23 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.4% more
Marshall: 236.0 vs Georgia State: 135.8
First Downs (L5) +10.1% more
Marshall: 23.8 vs Georgia State: 21.4
Turnovers (L5) +8.9% more
Georgia State: 1.6 vs Marshall: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 41.0 30
GAST Score 35.0 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 23.8 21.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 135.8 / 236.0 158.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.41 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 406.4 / 428.6 409.0 / 489.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
MRSH
GAST
MRSH
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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