Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ UAB UNT @ UAB

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

8-1  |  Road

53
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 2:00 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

3-6  |  Home

24
Key Game
AJ Brown
KEY GAME

AJ Brown

#96 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
Player
AJ Brown None-None
Jonah Delange None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
0%
📊
UAB
100%
NORTH TEXAS --
UAB --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (North Texas)
North TexasUNT (-3.5) 0 UABUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

93.3%

UAB Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNT -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-6 points

7.9%

UNT By 7-13 points

14.6%

UAB By 1-6 points

3.8%

UAB By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
38
NORTH TEXAS
17
UAB
Simulated Score
27
NORTH TEXAS
31
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Texas Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UAB Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI North Texas (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim UAB (-17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u68.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u68.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UNT @ UAB 53 - 24
Nov 25, 2023 UAB @ UNT 42 - 45
Nov 12, 2022 UNT @ UAB 21 - 41
Sep 18, 2021 UAB @ UNT 40 - 6
Nov 30, 2019 UAB @ UNT 26 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.2% more
North Texas: 183.5 vs UAB: 126.2
Total Yards (L5) +30.0% more
North Texas: 526.4 vs UAB: 368.6
First Downs (L5) +21.9% more
North Texas: 26.4 vs UAB: 20.7
Turnovers (L5) +17.9% more
UAB: 1.3 vs North Texas: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 38.0 53
UAB Score 17.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 26.4 26.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 126.2 / 183.5 190.0 / 208.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 368.6 / 526.4 478.0 / 506.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.1 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
UAB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
UAB
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
UNT
UAB
UNT
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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