Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ UL Monroe USA @ ULM

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

2-7  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Malone Stadium
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

3-6  |  Home

14
Key Game
Seidrion Langston
KEY GAME

Seidrion Langston

#16 | Linebacker
@
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
Player
Seidrion Langston None-None
Makenzie Ryan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
0%
📊
UL MONROE
100%
SOUTH ALABAMA --
UL MONROE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (South Alabama)
South AlabamaUSA (-3.5) 0 UL MonroeULM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

99.4%

UL Monroe Cover

0.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USA -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

USA By 1-6 points

1.4%

USA By 7-13 points

4.1%

ULM By 1-6 points

0.4%

ULM By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
38
SOUTH ALABAMA
3
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
17
SOUTH ALABAMA
38
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI South Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UL Monroe Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI South Alabama (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim UL Monroe (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ULM @ USA 35 - 52
Nov 15, 2025 USA @ ULM 26 - 14
Oct 26, 2024 ULM @ USA 17 - 46
Oct 7, 2023 USA @ ULM 55 - 7
Oct 15, 2022 ULM @ USA 34 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
South Alabama: 0.5 vs UL Monroe: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +18.9% more
South Alabama: 382.4 vs UL Monroe: 310.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
South Alabama: 185.4 vs UL Monroe: 151.0
First Downs (L5) +15.1% more
South Alabama: 19.3 vs UL Monroe: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 38.0 26
ULM Score 3.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 19.3 9.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 151.0 / 185.4 72.0 / 200.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.11 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 310.0 / 382.4 154.0 / 362.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
USA
ULM
USA
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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