Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ East Carolina MEM @ ECU

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

8-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 4:00 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

6-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
Taylor Burton
KEY GAME

Taylor Burton

#90 | Defensive Lineman
@
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
Player
Taylor Burton None-None
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
0%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
100%
MEMPHIS --
EAST CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Memphis)
MemphisMEM (-3.5) 0 East CarolinaECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

58.5%

East Carolina Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MEM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-6 points

17.0%

MEM By 7-13 points

17.5%

ECU By 1-6 points

15.3%

ECU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
34
MEMPHIS
31
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
31
MEMPHIS
24
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Memphis Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Memphis Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Memphis (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Memphis (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 MEM @ ECU 27 - 31
Oct 15, 2022 MEM @ ECU 45 - 47
Nov 13, 2021 ECU @ MEM 30 - 29
Nov 3, 2018 MEM @ ECU 59 - 41
Nov 25, 2017 ECU @ MEM 13 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +78.2% more
East Carolina: 228.9 vs Memphis: 128.5
Turnovers (L5) +37.0% more
East Carolina: 1.1 vs Memphis: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +14.5% more
East Carolina: 478.3 vs Memphis: 417.7
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
East Carolina: 26.4 vs Memphis: 23.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 34.0 27
ECU Score 31.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.4 / 23.3 24.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 228.9 / 128.5 122.0 / 240.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 478.3 / 417.7 454.0 / 457.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
MEM
ECU
MEM
ML
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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